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Off-Cycle Rate Hike Fails To Shore Up Peso

PHP

Spot USD/PHP briefly ticked lower in reaction to the off-cycle 25bp rate hike delivered by the BSP, before recovering during Governor Remolona's media briefing. The rate closed +0.11 at PHP56.97, approaching the ceiling of its recent trading range at PHP57.00, which is the initial line in the sand. USD/PHP 1-month NDF sit +0.13 at 56.96, operating in the vicinity of the 57.00 figure and resistance from Sep 26 high of 57.25.

  • The Governor struck some hawkish notes during the press conference, indicating that the Monetary Board will still hold its regular rate review on November 16 and may consider tightening policy further, depending on the assessment of incoming data.
  • The central bank's 2024 inflation forecast was revised higher by a decent margin to +4.7% Y/Y from +3.5% pencilled in at the September 21 monetary policy meeting. This means that inflation is expected to average above the target range next year.
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