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Off Intraday Highs But Still Outperforming EGB/USTs

GILTS

Gilts have come off intraday highs but remain over 80 ticks firmer on the day, following the lower than expected UK CPI print for November, continuing to outperform EGB/UST counterparts.

  • Gilt futures are currently up 82 ticks at 102.77 (from a high of 103.08), with 103.12 (2.618 proj of the Nov 24 - 29 - 30 price swing) the first resistance.
  • The gilt curve bull steepens, with 10Y Gilt yields down -10.5bp at 3.543% and 2Y Gilt yields down -14.9bp at 4.115%.
  • Services inflation, watched closely by the BoE, disinflated to 6.3% Y/Y (vs a split consensus of between 6.5/6.6% in our preview, 6.6% prior and 6.9% in the BoE Nov projections). BoE-dated OIS contracts price over 140bps of cuts through 2024.
  • The CPI data overshadows the November XpertHR median pay print, which remained steady at 6.0 Y/Y and slightly less deflationary than expected PPI figures.
  • There is still a slew of UK data releases due later in the week, the most notable being public sector finances, retail sales and the final estimate of Q3 GDP.
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