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Off Lows Ahead US CPI inflation Report

US TSYS
  • Treasuries climbed steadily off early week lows Tuesday, shorts pared ahead Wednesday's CPI, FOMC Minutes.
  • Consensus puts core CPI inflation at 0.3% M/M in March with some skew towards a ‘low’ 0.3 reading. Most of the usual drivers are seen exerting downward pressure after a stronger than expected 0.36% M/M in Feb, most notably used car prices after their surprise increase.
  • Tsys pared gains briefly after weak $58B 3Y note auction (91282CKJ9) tailed: 4.548% high yield vs. 4.527% WI; 2.50x bid-to-cover vs. 2.60x prior month. After the bell, Jun'24 10Y futures trade +12.5 at 109-21 vs. 109-22.5 high, 10Y yield -0.581 at 4.3616%.
  • A downtrend in Treasuries remains intact despite the bounce posted across the Tuesday session. An overriding bear trend remains intact. The contract has cleared support at 109-09+, the Apr 3 low, confirming a resumption of this year's downtrend.
  • Projected rate cut pricing firmer vs. late Monday levels: May 2024 at -6.7% vs. -4.7bp late Monday w/ cumulative -1.7bp at 5.312%; June 2024 at -53.4% vs. -48.8% w/ cumulative rate cut -15bp at 5.179%. July'24 cumulative at -24.6bp vs -22.1bp, Sep'24 cumulative -41bp vs. -38.2bp.
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