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Off Lows, But Sizeable Gap Remains With Pre-CPI Highs

EUR
  • EUR/USD creeps to a new daily high through the London close, extending the bounce off the overnight lows to just over 30 pips. USD's downmove very much following US yields lower, as the US 10yr yield edges gradually toward the 4.25% mark.
  • Intraday level of 1.0733 has now been topped, opening 1.0745 next - the 50% retracement for the post-US CPI move - still some way to go before the best levels of the week can be considered, particularly as ECB speakers today (namely de Guindos, Makhlouf, Vujcic and Lane) do little to bring forward ECB '24 pricing.
  • ECB-dated OIS contracts now price 114bps of cuts through 2024 (vs 112bps around lunchtime) - focus shifts to tomorrow's appearances from ECB President Lagarde at an ECON hearing (0800GMT/0900CET) and Chief Economist Lane at an online seminar on "Monetary Policy and Banks' Business Strategies" (1200GMT/1300CET). Governing Council members de Cos and Nagel also speak.
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