- PolicyPolicy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: - G10 MarketsG10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI Podcasts - Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
- CommoditiesCommodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
- Data
- MNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
- About Us
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessOff Lows, Survey Data Adds Weight To RBA’s “Narrow Path” Thesis
Aussie bonds operate just off of worst levels in the weak of the latest NAB Business survey, which saw a fall in both conditions and confidence. YM is -3.0, while XM is -1.1, with the wider cash ACGB curve seeing a similar degree of bear flattening. EFPs hold narrower on the day, suggesting the move is bond, not swap, driven. Local data hasn’t had much impact on the space, with an uptick in U.S. Tsys helping ACGBs find a bit of a base.
- The details of the NAB survey revealed that “with activity holding up there are few signs of any turnaround in inflation... Overall, the survey highlights a growing concern that the economy’s strength over 2022 is set to come to an end as we enter 2023, and forward orders have softened, reflecting a more uncertain outlook. In fact, the gap between current business conditions and business confidence is now at a record level in the history of the survey - with the exception of March 2020 - pointing to heightened concerns about the resilience of the economy in the period ahead as inflation and higher rates weigh on consumers and global growth slows.”
- This came after the Westpac consumer confidence saw an uptick, although the survey collator noted that “the level of the Index remains comparable with the lows seen during the COVID pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis.”
- In sum, the outlook provided by the two surveys gives further credence to the RBA’s assessment re: the narrow path that the economy is on at present.
To read the full story
Sign up now for free access to this content.
Please enter your details below and select your areas of interest.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.