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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EUROZONE
As we noted last week, the Eurosystem staff's euro area growth forecasts are very likely due for a downgrade this Thursday in the September projections released alongside the ECB decision.
- This was underlined today by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs interim forecast update which downgraded the 2023 Eurozone GDP growth estimate to 0.8% from 1.1% prior, with 2024 down to 1.3% from 1.6% prior. The new projections include a -0.4% German growth outturn in 2023 (vs +0.2% prior), and downgrades to the Netherlands (0.5% from 1.8%) and Italy (0.9% from 1.2%).
- The ECB's June staff forecasts (see below) already look fairly similar to this fresh set of EC forecasts for 2023 growth (0.9%), but a further downward revision to 2024's 1.5% is also on the cards.
- On inflation: the EC's 5.8% HICP outturn for 2023 has been revised down to 5.6%, with 2024 ticking higher to 2.9% from 2.8% prior. The ECB's staff forecasts were already closer to the mark here: 5.4% for 2023 and 3.0% for 2024.
- Bloomberg consensus is more pessimistic on growth and more optimistic on 2024 inflation than either the ECB or EC, while being more pessimistic on growth both this year and next: median estimates for 2023/2024 HICP are 5.6% and 2.7% respectively, with GDP growth of 0.6% / 0.9%.
Source: ECB - Eurosystem Staff June 2023 Macro Forecasts
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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