Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CHINA DATA
A reminder that the official PMI prints are out tomorrow for August. The market consensus for the manufacturing PMI is a slight improvement to 49.2 versus 49.0 in July. For the non-manufacturing PMI, the forecast is 52.3 versus 53.8 previously.
- The relative divergence in expectations is not surprising given August saw a fresh Covid wave hit a number of China cities. No major cities were locked down, but case numbers were still above 3000 by the middle of the month before the trend improved.
- In any case, such a backdrop would be expected to weigh more on the services backdrop relative to manufacturing, although power outages could also impact on this sector. The authorities have stated the current episode isn't as bad as last year's coal shortages.
- The authorities also announced fresh stimulus measures towards the end of August, which hints at concern around the growth backdrop, all else equal.
- Note, the Standard Chartered SME survey, which has already printed for August, eased back in the month to 51.30, from 52.16 in July, suggesting some loss of momentum. Still, we remain comfortably above the May trough of 48.50 for this index, see the chart below.
Fig 1: China Manufacturing PMI Versus Standard Chartered SME Survey
Source: Standard Chartered/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok