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Offshore Yuan Consolidating Gains, USD/CNH Briefly Tests Below 50-DMA

CNH
  • USD/CNH (-1.30%) has stabilised in most recent trade just above the 6.85 mark but is consolidating sharp losses on Monday. The pair briefly tried below its 50-DMA, intersecting today at 6.8373, which has underpinned price action since mid-February.
  • In the absence of notable domestic headlines, the move has been driven by the renewed greenback weakness, with the USD index still sitting ~1.00% lower on the session.
  • A close under the March 01 low of CNH6.8634 would mark the completion of a double top formation, with the bearish theme being reinforced by a sustained move through the 50-DMA.
  • On the data front, late on Friday aggregate finance figures were a bit better than expected but down from noticeably from the heady January pace. Wednesday delivers Feb activity data, which will be the main focus point this week.
  • Worth noting that in a move that surprised analysts, PBoC Governor Yi Gang has retained his position as head of the central bank. The finance and commerce ministry heads have also been retained. This signals likely policy continuity as China continues to navigate the re-opening and overhauls its regulation of the financial sector.
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