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Ohio Primary Elections To Test Influence Of Donald Trump

US

The 2022 midterm season kicks off today with primary elections in Ohio and Indiana.

  • The Ohio Senate Republican primary, considered a bellwether for the future influence of former President Donald Trump, is the one to watch.
  • The two candidates to keep an eye on are Trump endorsed JD Vance, and Trump opponent Matt Dolan, who has made a late surge into contention.
  • The Hill claims that Senate Republicans are privately supporting the Dolan bid: ‘A senior Senate GOP aide, who said that 70 percent of Senate Republicans share this sentiment, though only few of them would dare to say so publicly.’
  • GOP strategist Matt Dole said: ‘…if Vance wins, Trump will tout his role in the race to build political momentum heading into the next election cycle.’
  • Early polling data from ABC suggests that absentee ballots and early votes far surpass the mark set during the 2018 primary election.
  • Predictit currently has Vance with a tight 7pt lead down from an overwhelming margin last week showing that the markets are supporting the late Dolan run.

Chart 1: Ohio Senate Republican Primary

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