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Oil Continues To Support NOK vs G10

SCANDIS

NOKSEK is off intraday highs, but the NOK remains supported vs the G10 from the firmer oil price backdrop following yesterday’s ratchet higher in Middle East tensions.

  • Technically, NOKSEK trades within a bull channel drawn from the March 12 low (0.9711) and currently sits 2.2% above that level.
  • Today’s NFP print may be of particular importance to the SEK after yesterday’s Riksbank minutes, where Executive Board members highlighted the importance of Federal Reserve policy for the krona’s developments.
  • To the extent that today’s NFP release materially affects Fed communication at their May 1 meeting, this will have implications on whether the Riksbank can confidently cut their own policy rates on May 8 (the March MPR rate path assigns a 50% likelihood of this outcome).
  • Of course, next week’s Norwegian and Swedish CPI releases will be of greater importance to the NOKSEK cross and Norges Bank/Riksbank monetary policy matters.

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