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OIL: Crude Holds Below Friday Highs as Iran Output Risk Assessed

OIL
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Crude prices are steady after a pull back from a high of $79.3/bbl on Oct. 4 as markets watch and wait for Israel’s response to Iran’s missile attack. Earlier Iran cleared its airspace but has since opened some airports. Israel continued to strike targets in Lebanon and Gaza over the weekend.

  • The market weighs the risk of a strike by Israel on Iran’s oil facilities and further escalation to the area that could impact both oil and gas supplies. The US is urging Israel to avoid Iran’s oil infrastructure.
  • Goldman Sachs estimates that Brent could increase to the $90s if Iranian oil production was hit but upside would be dependant on if OPEC offset any lost supply, according to Bloomberg.
  • Saudi Arabia increased the crude premium to customers in Asia by more than expected but cut it for cargoes to Europe and the US. Arab Light to Asia was raised by $0.9/bbl.
  • The impact of recent China stimulus measures on actual oil demand remains uncertain amid soft manufacturing data. On Tuesday the head economic planner will hold a press conference and further government spending will be hoped for.
  • US producers are watching for the path of Hurricane Milton moving slowly eastwards in the UK Gulf of Mexico.  BP is closely monitoring the storm but currently see no major impact on offshore facilities.
  • Diesel and gasoline crack spreads are drifting lower after gains seen late last week which took the US diesel spread to the highest since Aug. 21.
    • Brent DEC 24 down 0.4% at 77.7$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 down 0.3% at 74.15$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-JAN 25 down 0.01$/bbl at 0.61$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.1$/bbl at 3.56$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.3$/bbl at 13.22$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0$/bbl at 22.96$/bbl
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Crude prices are steady after a pull back from a high of $79.3/bbl on Oct. 4 as markets watch and wait for Israel’s response to Iran’s missile attack. Earlier Iran cleared its airspace but has since opened some airports. Israel continued to strike targets in Lebanon and Gaza over the weekend.

  • The market weighs the risk of a strike by Israel on Iran’s oil facilities and further escalation to the area that could impact both oil and gas supplies. The US is urging Israel to avoid Iran’s oil infrastructure.
  • Goldman Sachs estimates that Brent could increase to the $90s if Iranian oil production was hit but upside would be dependant on if OPEC offset any lost supply, according to Bloomberg.
  • Saudi Arabia increased the crude premium to customers in Asia by more than expected but cut it for cargoes to Europe and the US. Arab Light to Asia was raised by $0.9/bbl.
  • The impact of recent China stimulus measures on actual oil demand remains uncertain amid soft manufacturing data. On Tuesday the head economic planner will hold a press conference and further government spending will be hoped for.
  • US producers are watching for the path of Hurricane Milton moving slowly eastwards in the UK Gulf of Mexico.  BP is closely monitoring the storm but currently see no major impact on offshore facilities.
  • Diesel and gasoline crack spreads are drifting lower after gains seen late last week which took the US diesel spread to the highest since Aug. 21.
    • Brent DEC 24 down 0.4% at 77.7$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 down 0.3% at 74.15$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-JAN 25 down 0.01$/bbl at 0.61$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.1$/bbl at 3.56$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.3$/bbl at 13.22$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0$/bbl at 22.96$/bbl