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OIL: Crude Range Trading Given US Holiday, Factors Offset Each Other In November

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Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday as the 60-day truce between Israel and Hezbollah started and so far is holding. With a market surplus in focus for 2025, the 0.7% drop in the USD index failed to boost crude. Trading volumes have been light given the US Thanksgiving holiday and crude has struggled to find direction ahead of the weekend’s OPEC meeting. 

  • WTI was flat at $68.77/bbl yesterday and has started today around that level. It rose to a high of $69.37 before falling to $68.18/bbl and then recovered somewhat. Initial support is at $66.32 and resistance at $72.41.
  • Brent is 0.2% higher at $72.93/bbl to be up only slightly in November as various influences offset one another. It reached a high of $73.37 before declining to $72.27. Short-term bearish conditions remain reinforced by Monday’s sharp sell-off. Initial support is at $70.28, October 29 low, and the bear trigger is $68.01, while resistance is at $76.24, November 5 high.
  • The market continues to monitor the situation in the Middle East while hoping that the ceasefire will hold and one will be agreed for Gaza. Iran continues to be the main risk for oil.
  • After three weeks of rising crude inventories, they fell 1.84mn barrels last week, according to the EIA. Gasoline stocks rose 3.31mn and distillate 416k. The inventory build weighed on US product prices. Refinery utilisation increased 0.3pp to 90.5%. Implied diesel demand fell to a 15-year low for this time of year, according to Bloomberg. 

US crude stocks ex SPR

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Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday as the 60-day truce between Israel and Hezbollah started and so far is holding. With a market surplus in focus for 2025, the 0.7% drop in the USD index failed to boost crude. Trading volumes have been light given the US Thanksgiving holiday and crude has struggled to find direction ahead of the weekend’s OPEC meeting. 

  • WTI was flat at $68.77/bbl yesterday and has started today around that level. It rose to a high of $69.37 before falling to $68.18/bbl and then recovered somewhat. Initial support is at $66.32 and resistance at $72.41.
  • Brent is 0.2% higher at $72.93/bbl to be up only slightly in November as various influences offset one another. It reached a high of $73.37 before declining to $72.27. Short-term bearish conditions remain reinforced by Monday’s sharp sell-off. Initial support is at $70.28, October 29 low, and the bear trigger is $68.01, while resistance is at $76.24, November 5 high.
  • The market continues to monitor the situation in the Middle East while hoping that the ceasefire will hold and one will be agreed for Gaza. Iran continues to be the main risk for oil.
  • After three weeks of rising crude inventories, they fell 1.84mn barrels last week, according to the EIA. Gasoline stocks rose 3.31mn and distillate 416k. The inventory build weighed on US product prices. Refinery utilisation increased 0.3pp to 90.5%. Implied diesel demand fell to a 15-year low for this time of year, according to Bloomberg. 

US crude stocks ex SPR

Keep reading...Show less