OIL: Crude Recovers Following Trump Tariff Statement Sell Off

Oil prices have trended higher since the US dollar turned down again after rising strongly earlier in the session following US President-elect Trump announcing that one of the first things he’ll do in office is add another 10% to existing tariffs on China and introduce 25% on Mexico and Canada (USD BBDXY +0.3%). WTI is up 0.3% to $69.12/bbl, close to the intraday high, and Brent is 0.3% higher at $73.26/bbl.

• US oil imports from Canada would be impacted by the tariff announcement as it stands.
• Despite the recent risk to Russian oil infrastructure from the escalation in the Ukraine/Russia conflict, and optimism that a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah is imminent, supply/demand fundamentals remain in focus. US industry-based inventory data print later today with official EIA figures on Wednesday and the OPEC+ meeting on the weekend.
• A representative from Iran said that the non-OPEC supply outlook means that the group has little room to reduce output cuts, according to Bloomberg.
• The prospect of a truce for Lebanon drove a sharp fall in oil prices on Monday and they now stand up less than a percent on the month.
• Later the FOMC November meeting minutes are published and the ECB’s McCaul and BoE’s Pill speak. US September house prices, October new home sales, November consumer confidence and November Richmond, Philly and Dallas Fed indices print.