OIL: Crude Regains Ground with Focus on US Inflation, Stocks and Canada Fires

Crude is recovering some of the losses from yesterday with support from a slightly weaker US dollar ahead of the release of inflation data as the market looks for signs of future Fed monetary policy. A drop in API US crude and gasoline inventories and supply risks due to wildfires in Canada are also supportive.

• Volatile trading yesterday saw prices swing between $82.1/bbl and $83.54/bbl amid headlines that several major OPEC exporters are seeking to have their levels upgraded to pump more crude in 2025.
  • Brent JUL 24 up 0.7% at 82.92$/bbl
  • WTI JUN 24 up 0.7% at 78.58$/bbl
  • Gasoil JUN 24 up 0.9% at 748.25$/mt
  • Brent JUL 24-AUG 24 up 0.02$/bbl at 0.44$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.11$/bbl at 4.23$/bbl
• A large wildfire is slowly approaching Fort McMurray, a hub for Canada's oil sands industry, and around 6,000 people in four suburbs have been told to evacuate after the blaze grew significantly on Tuesday.
• API data showed a 3.1mbbl crude stocks draw last week while gasoline stocks fell 1.27mbbl and distillate rose 349kbbl ahead of the official EIA data released later today.
• The IEA monthly oil report is due for release today as the market looks for indications on global oil demand growth and the future balance. OPEC yesterday kept their demand growth forecast for 2024 unchanged at 2.2mb/d.
• Gasoline and diesel cracks are seeing a net decline again so far this week amid weak seasonal demand and healthy global supplies, although strong summer demand could boost gasoline prices according to FGE.
  • US gasoline crack up 0$/bbl at 25.41$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down 0$/bbl at 23.56$/bbl