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OIL: Crude Set for Strong Weekly Gain Weighing Iran Risk and Returning Supply

OIL
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Oil steadies after surging again yesterday on vague comments by Biden suggesting Israel strikes on Iranian oil facilities are under discussion as markets wait to see if oil supplies will be disrupted. Front month Brent however remains below levels seen before September with bearish pressure due to the expected return of Libya oil supplies and ongoing global demand uncertainty.

  • A US official later suggested talks with Israel were ongoing and believed no decision on Israel’s response had yet been taken, Bloomberg said.
  • The National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) appears to be fearing an imminent attack by Israel according to TankerTrackers noting tanker moves not seen since 2018 sanctions.
  • Libyan officials said all oil production in the country was being restored lifting force majeure measures at all ports and fields, including the biggest in the country, Sharara. Sharara went offline in early August ahead of the rest of the infrastructure.
  • Repairs at Kazakhstan’s giant Kashagan field have been postponed until October 7 the energy ministry said to Reuters on Thursday, suggesting a 4-day delay.
  • Gasoline and diesel crack spreads have rallied with signs of tighter supplies from refinery run cuts and maintenance ahead of the winter season despite some previous weakness due to the surging crude prices.
    • Brent DEC 24 down 0.1% at 77.57$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 down 0.1% at 73.65$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-JAN 25 unchanged at 0.51$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.1$/bbl at 3.07$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0$/bbl at 14.28$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0$/bbl at 22.86$/bbl
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Oil steadies after surging again yesterday on vague comments by Biden suggesting Israel strikes on Iranian oil facilities are under discussion as markets wait to see if oil supplies will be disrupted. Front month Brent however remains below levels seen before September with bearish pressure due to the expected return of Libya oil supplies and ongoing global demand uncertainty.

  • A US official later suggested talks with Israel were ongoing and believed no decision on Israel’s response had yet been taken, Bloomberg said.
  • The National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) appears to be fearing an imminent attack by Israel according to TankerTrackers noting tanker moves not seen since 2018 sanctions.
  • Libyan officials said all oil production in the country was being restored lifting force majeure measures at all ports and fields, including the biggest in the country, Sharara. Sharara went offline in early August ahead of the rest of the infrastructure.
  • Repairs at Kazakhstan’s giant Kashagan field have been postponed until October 7 the energy ministry said to Reuters on Thursday, suggesting a 4-day delay.
  • Gasoline and diesel crack spreads have rallied with signs of tighter supplies from refinery run cuts and maintenance ahead of the winter season despite some previous weakness due to the surging crude prices.
    • Brent DEC 24 down 0.1% at 77.57$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 down 0.1% at 73.65$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-JAN 25 unchanged at 0.51$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.1$/bbl at 3.07$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0$/bbl at 14.28$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0$/bbl at 22.86$/bbl