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OIL: Crude Surplus in Q4 if OPEC Supply Rises Depsite Demand Revision Lower: IEA
The oil market could switch from a deficit due to peak summer demand to a surplus in Q4 if OPEC+ increases supply as is currently planned, according to the latest IEA Oil Monthly Report.
- IEA lowered the global demand forecast for both 2024 and 2025 following the revision lower by OPEC yesterday. Global oil demand for 2024 is down from 974kb/d to 970kb/d and for 2025 down from 979kb/d to 953kb/d.
- The total demand forecast is 103.1mb/d in 2024 and 104mb/d in 2025.
- IEA has lowered the 2024 total oil supply forecast to 102.9mb/d from 103mb/d but raised the 2025 forecast to 104.9mb/d from 104.8mb/d.
- Non-OPEC+ production growth is expected at 1.5mb/d and OPEC output could fall 760kb/d in 2024 if voluntary cuts stay but rise 400kb/d in 2025.
- Global oil inventories may increase by an average of 920kb/d in 2025.
- The global refinery output forecast is lowered to 83.3mb/d from 83.4mb/d in 2024 and to 83.9mb/d from 84mb/d in 2025.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.