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OIL: Crude Surplus in Q4 if OPEC Supply Rises Depsite Demand Revision Lower: IEA

OIL

The oil market could switch from a deficit due to peak summer demand to a surplus in Q4 if OPEC+ increases supply as is currently planned, according to the latest IEA Oil Monthly Report.

  • IEA lowered the global demand forecast for both 2024 and 2025 following the revision lower by OPEC yesterday. Global oil demand for 2024 is down from 974kb/d to 970kb/d and for 2025 down from 979kb/d to 953kb/d.
  • The total demand forecast is 103.1mb/d in 2024 and 104mb/d in 2025.
  • IEA has lowered the 2024 total oil supply forecast to 102.9mb/d from 103mb/d but raised the 2025 forecast to 104.9mb/d from 104.8mb/d.
  • Non-OPEC+ production growth is expected at 1.5mb/d and OPEC output could fall 760kb/d in 2024 if voluntary cuts stay but rise 400kb/d in 2025.
  • Global oil inventories may increase by an average of 920kb/d in 2025. 
  • The global refinery output forecast is lowered to 83.3mb/d from 83.4mb/d in 2024 and to 83.9mb/d from 84mb/d in 2025.

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