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OIL: Crude Weighs Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire and OPEC+ Output Plans

OIL
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Crude markets are edging back higher after falling to a low of $72.09/bbl yesterday as a 60-day truce between Israel and Hezbollah began at 0200 GMT helping to ease some risk premium. 

  • The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah will be monitored closely with both sides attacking in the hours before the truce was due to begin.
  • Uncertainty still surrounds the future OPEC+ plans to increase supply next year with many analysts expecting a further output hike delay to be decided at the Dec. 1 minister meeting, amid soft demand growth and growing non-OPEC supply.
  • A petroleum industry group has estimated that Trump’s 25% tariff on imports from Canada could impact almost 4mbbl of Canadian oil and would increase US gasoline prices, according to Bloomberg.
  • EIA US crude inventories are today expected to show a small draw of 0.5mbbl and with small draws also for gasoline and distillates. API data yesterday showed a crude stock draw of 5.9mbbl, according to Bloomberg. Gasoline stocks rose 1.8mbbl and distillates rose 2.5mbbl.
  • Russia may resume gasoline exports for two months from Dec. 1, according to Kommersant. November Russian oil product exports rebounded 18% m/m driven by diesel and naphtha, Bloomberg said.
  • Diesel and gasoline cracks are steady ahead of the expected travel demand boost over Thanksgiving.
    • Brent JAN 25 up 0.5% at 73.2$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 25 up 0.5% at 69.13$/bbl
    • Brent JAN 25-FEB 25 up 0.04$/bbl at 0.53$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 up 0.05$/bbl at 1.01$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.2$/bbl at 12.79$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.2$/bbl at 25.27$/bbl
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Crude markets are edging back higher after falling to a low of $72.09/bbl yesterday as a 60-day truce between Israel and Hezbollah began at 0200 GMT helping to ease some risk premium. 

  • The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah will be monitored closely with both sides attacking in the hours before the truce was due to begin.
  • Uncertainty still surrounds the future OPEC+ plans to increase supply next year with many analysts expecting a further output hike delay to be decided at the Dec. 1 minister meeting, amid soft demand growth and growing non-OPEC supply.
  • A petroleum industry group has estimated that Trump’s 25% tariff on imports from Canada could impact almost 4mbbl of Canadian oil and would increase US gasoline prices, according to Bloomberg.
  • EIA US crude inventories are today expected to show a small draw of 0.5mbbl and with small draws also for gasoline and distillates. API data yesterday showed a crude stock draw of 5.9mbbl, according to Bloomberg. Gasoline stocks rose 1.8mbbl and distillates rose 2.5mbbl.
  • Russia may resume gasoline exports for two months from Dec. 1, according to Kommersant. November Russian oil product exports rebounded 18% m/m driven by diesel and naphtha, Bloomberg said.
  • Diesel and gasoline cracks are steady ahead of the expected travel demand boost over Thanksgiving.
    • Brent JAN 25 up 0.5% at 73.2$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 25 up 0.5% at 69.13$/bbl
    • Brent JAN 25-FEB 25 up 0.04$/bbl at 0.53$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 up 0.05$/bbl at 1.01$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.2$/bbl at 12.79$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.2$/bbl at 25.27$/bbl