Oil End-Day Summary: Crude Finds Further Strength

Crude prices found further strengths in today’s session, rising to the highest level since 2 May and breaking through resistance, supported by signs of lower Russian exports and the potential for further China policy support measures for the country’s property sector.

• Brent SEP 23 up 1.9% at 79.18$/bbl
• The next Brent resistance is at $79.94/bbl.
• WTI AUG 23 up 2.1% at 74.51$/bbl
• Gasoil JUL 23 up 1.2% at 763.75$/mt
• US CPI data are due to be released tomorrow. The Fed is on track to raise interest rates at the upcoming meeting.
• Russian seaborne crude exports are showing signs of a decline with exports falling just over 1mbpd WoW as of 9 July. Russian Urals crude prices rose to $57.70/bbl as of Friday, just below the G7 price cap.
• Saudi Aramco plans to supply full nominated volumes of crude in August to North Asia, following the extended output cut and OSP hike. China requested once again less supply. Two major European refiners requested less volumes. The cut is starting to weigh on mediums and heavy sour barrels availability.
• Chinese state-owned refineries are expected to ramp up output by 17% YoY in July.
• Diesel and gasoline crack spreads are holding steady this morning with diesel spreads slowly gaining ground over the last week amid supply disruptions in Europe. US Gulf Coast diesel exports to Europe so far this month on track to hit the highest monthly rate since at least 2017. Russian refinery processing rates are recovering in early July to highest since early April.
• US gasoline demand for the week ending July 8 fell 8.4% WoW, and 5.1% below the four-week average.
• Gasoil JUL 23-AUG 23 up 2$/mt at 14.25$/mt
• US gasoline crack up 0.3$/bbl at 35.3$/bbl