Oil End of Day Summary at European Close: Crude Struggles for Direction

Crude is heading towards the US close largely rangebound amid a volatile session. This follows yesterday’s sharp fall. Middle East shipping continues to be a concern for the market, despite some easing of tensions.

• WTI FEB 24 down -0.1% at 71.73$/bbl
• The US military is trying to reassure shipping companies that the task force to protect the Red Sea route is making it safe to transit despite the threat of Houthi rebel attacks.
• The total US rig count rose two during the week to 622, according to Baker Hughes Dec. 29.
• US crude production dipped down to 13.248mbpd in October from the record high of 13.252mbpd in September according to the updated EIA monthly production data.
• Saudi Aramco could cut the Arab Light official selling price to Asia by 1.25$/bbl in February according to the median estimate of a Bloomberg survey of three refiners.
• China has released the first batch of fuel export quotas for 2024 almost unchanged from the first allocation issued in 2023 according to industry consultant JLC.
• India’s crude oil imports in November fell by 2.3% year on year to 18.57m tons compared to 18.73m tons in October, according to provisional data from the oil ministry’s Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell.
• International oil prices are likely to remain near $80/b in 2024, according to a Reuters poll.
• Energy Aspects expects Brent crude to hold near $80/bbl during Q1 2024 before rising to $85$/bbl or higher during Q2 according to Amrita Sen in a Bloomberg interview.
• Ecuador’s state-run oil producer Petroecuador declared an FM Dec. 29 concerning operations at the Ishpingo field in the Amazon amid protests by indigenous communities, according to Reuters.