Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Falls on Stronger Dollar

WTI is trading lower, although rebounded from its intraday low of $82.98/b. A stronger dollar driven by higher-than-expected US S&P global October manufacturing PMI at 50 vs 49.8 prior has weighed on crude prices.

• WTI DEC 23 down -1.8% at 83.91$/bbl
• WTI-Brent down -0.11$/bbl at -4.41$/bbl
• The key risk comes from any potential impact on Iran supply which could be greater than any boost to Venezuela production amid easing US sanctions.
• The number of vessels that loaded sanctioned Iranian and Venezuelan crude has seen a 3% increase so far this year and has increased 13% in terms of capacity according to Kpler.
• US demand is also back in focus due to the release today of the preliminary October PMIs with uncertainty over future central bank policy amid optimism for a slightly more positive economic picture.
• US crude oil inventories are expected to be largely stable on the week when the EIA released the data Oct. 25, based on a WSJ survey.
• The API oil inventory data is due for release today at 16:30ET.
• The IEA World Oil Outlook released today sees oil, gas, coal demand to peak by 2030 with oil demand of 92.5mb/d, down 0.5mb/d from year's report while the 2050 oil demand projection was reduced by 2.4mb/d to 54.8mb/d.
• Russia shipped around 3.53m b/d of crude in the week to Oct. 22, up 0.2m b/d on the week, according to Bloomberg.
• Canadian Natural’s oil output from wells increased by 2.7% in September to the highest since July 2019 at 446kb/d driven by a 13kb/d rise at the Wolf Lake oil sands well site.
• Nigeria’s exports of Qua Iboe crude in December are scheduled to fall by 41.8% on the month, according to a loading programme seen by Bloomberg.
• Kazakhstan is planning to ship at least 80,000 t/month of oil from the Kashagan field in October to April through the Atyrau-Samara pipeline via the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, KazTransOil said, cited by Bloomberg.
• The loosening of sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry will be a boost to US refiners, well-equipped to process its heavy crude, according to Bloomberg.
• Crude oil prices must hit $110/bbl before Saudi Arabia will ease its current crude production cuts, Pierre Andurand said, cited by Bloomberg.
• Saudi Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser said Oct. 24 that oil demand is currently strong and saw significant demand growth for oil.