Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Up After Yesterday’s Losses

WTI front month futures have ticked up moderately during US trading hours, although remain below the intraday high of $77.05/b. WTI has also shown a small downturn in US hours after rebounding to $76.61/b.

• WTI DEC 23 up 1% at 76.05$/bbl
• WTI-Brent down -0.09$/bbl at -4.28$/bbl
• WTI DEC 23-JAN 24 down -0.03$/bbl at -0.01$/bbl
• WTI JAN 24-FEB 24 down -0.01$/bbl at 0.18$/bbl
• Crude has regained ground after steep losses yesterday amid an improved risk sentiment and slight pull back from the downside pressure the bearish demand outlook is having on prices.
• The WTI prompt month time-spread has flattened and is oscillating between a shallow contango and shallow backwardation. Weak prompt demand, record US output and expectations of building Cushing stocks are weighing on the prompt and pushing the market into contango.
• Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman says the recent oil decline is due to speculators and that oil demand is healthy according to Bloomberg.
• Saudi Aramco has notified at least four North Asian buyers that it will supply full contractual crude volumes to them in December according to Reuters sources.
• Saudi Arabia may extend its 1mbpd voluntary output cut well into 1Q24, from end of this year currently, because of renewed market concerns about Chinese oil demand and the broader macro-economic outlook, Head of Global Commodity Strategy Helima Croft said in a note.
• Oil officials from the Iraqi Federal government met with representatives of the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (APIKUR) on Wednesday to discuss the resumption of Iraq’s northern flows via the pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan according to Reuters.
• International oil companies operating in Iraqi Kurdistan will not produce oil for pipeline exports from the region until overdue payments are received according to Norway’s DNO that operate in the region.
• International oil companies operating in the Kurdistan region have reported increased output in the third quarter of this year and promised further output hikes before the end of the year, despite the continued closure of the ITP pipeline according to Argus Media.
• Oil demand growth is China remains a concern after CPI data showing that China has returned to deflation has added to the recent weaker manufacturing data and falling oil products exports.
• Kpler expects China crude imports to slip in Q4 from October levels of ~11mn bpd driven by weaker refinery runs.
• Global oil demand year to date has expanded by 2mbpd and reached 101.8mbpd in the first week of November, JP Morgen said in a note.
• The Russian government is discussing with oil companies to lift the ban on some gasoline exports. Russia’s oil product exports are showing signs of recovery driven by fuel oil and jet fuel following export restrictions and seasonal maintenance.
• CDU Capacity Utilisation rates at China’s independent refineries averaged 62.97% in the seven days to Nov. 9, down 1.28 percentage points on the week, according to OilChem.
• Crude oil exports by Russia, US, Guyana and Saudi are averaging higher over the past 28 days than Iran, Venezuela and Kazakhstan are averaging lower according to TankerTrackers.
• The number of laden Panama Canal transits across all vessel classes has decreased from a recent high of 18 down to 7 as of 8 November according to Vortexa data by Dylan Simpson
• The recent uptick in OPEC seaborne oil flows on the market will be temporary according to Goldman Sachs’ head of oil research Daan Struyven in a CNBC interview earlier this week.
• Oil prices are likely to consolidate near current levels after their recent drop according to a note from Citigroup.
• Trading houses are using little known middlemen to facilitate access to Venezuela’s oil, according to Reuters.
• New oil supplies from non OPEC+ countries will be sufficient to meet demand growth through to 2025 according to a note from Jim Burkhard, head of oil research at S&P Global.
• CHANCES OF SAUDIS EXTENDING 1M B/D OIL CUT ARE RISING: RBC