Oil Market Remains Rattled Thursday as OPEC+ Progress Remains Elusive

Oil End of Day Summary (Earlier due to Thanksgiving Holiday): Crude remains weaker Thursday but has recouped much of the earlier losses after a delay in the OPEC+ meeting rattled markets this week. A strong US crude stock build reported this week has also weighed on the WTI-Brent spread.

• Brent JAN 24 down -0.8% at 81.33$/bbl
• WTI JAN 24 down -1% at 76.3$/bbl
• Nigeria and Angola are the main nations pushing for higher production quotas, disrupting normal OPEC+ meeting proceedings. Both nations are aiming to boost their production in the short term.
• Nigeria’s proposed 2024 target will reduce to 1.38mn bpd – from 1.74mn bpd previously but will rise to 1.58mn bpd if three independent consultancies can confirm its capacity to produce at this level.
• An Angolan official stated the country’s intent to remain in OPEC, somewhat settling the markets Thursday.
• Outwith the difficulties faced by OPEC to assuage African nation concerns, Suadi and Russia are expected to sustain or deepen cuts into 2024 when they meet November 30.
• The ceasefire in Israel remains under question after a Hamas spokesperson appeared to question the pause in fighting.
• Reuters carrying comments from Abu Obeida, spokesperson of the Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, stating: “We call for escalation of confrontation with Israel on all resistance fronts.”
• Crude stockpiles in ARA fell 4.2mn bbls or 8.1% on a weekly basis for the week ended November 17 to 47.5mn bbls according to Genscape.
• A resumption in flows on the Iraq-Turkey pipeline remain elusive as more talks on their resumption do little to further progress at present, despite positive sounding headlines.
• Vortexa figures showed a rebound in OPEC+ flows in the first half of November – including Saudi. Its crude exports tipped the 6.5mn bpd level for the first time in early November since June.