Oil Markets Holding Monday's U.S. Travel and Geopol Gains

Oil markets are flat Tuesday, holding this week’s gains on optimism around U.S. demand and an OPEC+ rollover.

• Brent JUL 24 up 0.1% at 83.21$/bbl
• WTI JUL 24 up 1.4% at 78.82$/bbl
• Gasoil JUN 24 up 0.3% at 751.5$/mt
• WTI-Brent up 0.08$/bbl at -4.39$/bbl
• The Memorial Day weekend in the U.S. has indicated strong travel demand by both road and air as well as marked the start of summer driving season of peak gasoline demand.
• U.S. seat numbers on domestic flights for May rose by 5% m/m and almost 6% y/y - to slightly above 90 million according to OAG showed - surpassing 2019 levels.
• Trade had a slow start to the week because of public holidays in the U.S. and UK.
• Geopolitical tensions also flared up on Monday after an Egyptian soldier was killed in a clash with Israeli troops at the Rafah crossing, adding support to oil.
• Brent JUL 24-AUG 24 unchanged at 0.22$/bbl
• Brent AUG 24-SEP 24 down -0.01$/bbl at 0.42$/bbl
• The weight of sticky inflation in the U.S. and the prospect of delayed cuts weighed on oil markets last week.
• Three sources from OPEC+ countries said an extension on voluntary output cuts of 2.2 mn bpd into the second half of the year was likely, Reuters reported last week.
• Although the summer driving season may be underway, markets may be underwhelmed by actual demand levels as factors like car efficiency and electrification dent consumption. “Peak July [US gasoline] - demand may not even hit 9.2-9.3 this year,” GasBuddy said on X.
• US gasoline crack down -0.1$/bbl at 26.35$/bbl
• US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 24.63$/bbl