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OIL: Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Continues Pullback

OIL

Crude markets have lost ground today, continuing yesterday’s pullback amid a stronger USD and a shedding of some of the earlier geopolitical risk premium amid a lack of any tangible impact on supply.

  • Brent DEC 24 down 0.8% at 76.58$/bbl
  • WTI NOV 24 down 0.9% at 72.91$/bbl
  • There is no physical impact on oil yet as Iran exports continue with two VLCC and one Aframax loading at Kharj Island according to Bloomberg
  • API weekly oil stock data from late yesterday according to Bloomberg: Crude +11mbbl, Cushing +1.36mbbl.
  • ARA crude stocks fell 1.6mn bbls in the week ended October 4 to 52.4mn bbls according to Genscape.
  • The geopolitical risk premium in the oil market has decreased slightly this week following recent sharp increases last week in both implied Brent volatility and call options implied volatility skew according to Goldman Sachs.
  • Morgan Stanley has raised its Brent Q4 price forecast from $75/bbl to $80/bbl with near term support amid heightened geopolitical risk, according to Bloomberg.
  • Angola’s Sonangol further reduced its offer price for a shipment of Girassol crude for late-November loading, according to a price list seen by Bloomberg.
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Crude markets have lost ground today, continuing yesterday’s pullback amid a stronger USD and a shedding of some of the earlier geopolitical risk premium amid a lack of any tangible impact on supply.

  • Brent DEC 24 down 0.8% at 76.58$/bbl
  • WTI NOV 24 down 0.9% at 72.91$/bbl
  • There is no physical impact on oil yet as Iran exports continue with two VLCC and one Aframax loading at Kharj Island according to Bloomberg
  • API weekly oil stock data from late yesterday according to Bloomberg: Crude +11mbbl, Cushing +1.36mbbl.
  • ARA crude stocks fell 1.6mn bbls in the week ended October 4 to 52.4mn bbls according to Genscape.
  • The geopolitical risk premium in the oil market has decreased slightly this week following recent sharp increases last week in both implied Brent volatility and call options implied volatility skew according to Goldman Sachs.
  • Morgan Stanley has raised its Brent Q4 price forecast from $75/bbl to $80/bbl with near term support amid heightened geopolitical risk, according to Bloomberg.
  • Angola’s Sonangol further reduced its offer price for a shipment of Girassol crude for late-November loading, according to a price list seen by Bloomberg.