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OIL: Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Extends Rally

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Crude markets extend the weekly rally with an increased risk premium from potential Israel strikes on Iran’s oil facilities although there is no impact yet on physical flows. The rally has reversed most of the early September declines due to market surplus risks.

  • A surge in crude call options volatilities continues with near term call-put skew rising to the most bullish since early 2022.
  • Asia's imports of crude rose marginally to 27.05mbpd in September, according to LSEG data with a drop in China arrivals offset by an increase to India. Year to date imports to Asia were down 200kbpd y/y to 26.7mbpd.
  • Spain's crude oil imports from Venezuela have risen to the highest since 2009, according to Cores data cited by Reuters.
  • Israel strikes targeting Iran’s oil facilities in response to Iran’s missile attacks earlier this week is the “least likely” available option, according to ANZ Group cited by Bloomberg.
  • The upcoming U.S. election will be having a sway on its foreign policy while it negotiates Israels response to Iran according to Energy Aspects Director Amrita Sen.
  • Gasoline exports from ARA to West Africa fell about 150kb/d in September to the lowest since May 2020, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters.
  • Marathon’s 253kb/d Robinson refinery in Illinois is working on repairs to a pipe following a leak, according to a filing.
  • The 110kb/d Chevron Pasadena refinery is undertaking planned works, according to a community alert.
    • Brent DEC 24 up 1.5% at 78.75$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 up 1.5% at 74.84$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0$/bbl at 14.28$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.2$/bbl at 23.02$/bbl
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Crude markets extend the weekly rally with an increased risk premium from potential Israel strikes on Iran’s oil facilities although there is no impact yet on physical flows. The rally has reversed most of the early September declines due to market surplus risks.

  • A surge in crude call options volatilities continues with near term call-put skew rising to the most bullish since early 2022.
  • Asia's imports of crude rose marginally to 27.05mbpd in September, according to LSEG data with a drop in China arrivals offset by an increase to India. Year to date imports to Asia were down 200kbpd y/y to 26.7mbpd.
  • Spain's crude oil imports from Venezuela have risen to the highest since 2009, according to Cores data cited by Reuters.
  • Israel strikes targeting Iran’s oil facilities in response to Iran’s missile attacks earlier this week is the “least likely” available option, according to ANZ Group cited by Bloomberg.
  • The upcoming U.S. election will be having a sway on its foreign policy while it negotiates Israels response to Iran according to Energy Aspects Director Amrita Sen.
  • Gasoline exports from ARA to West Africa fell about 150kb/d in September to the lowest since May 2020, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters.
  • Marathon’s 253kb/d Robinson refinery in Illinois is working on repairs to a pipe following a leak, according to a filing.
  • The 110kb/d Chevron Pasadena refinery is undertaking planned works, according to a community alert.
    • Brent DEC 24 up 1.5% at 78.75$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 up 1.5% at 74.84$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0$/bbl at 14.28$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.2$/bbl at 23.02$/bbl