Oil Mid-Day Summary: Crude Regains Ground

Crude futures have rebounded today after reaching their lowest level since late June yesterday. Prices are recovering ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls data today, while Iraq became the latest OPEC member to confirm commitment to pledged cuts yesterday evening.

• Brent FEB 24 up 1.6% at 75.27$/bbl
• WTI JAN 24 up 1.6% at 70.46$/bbl
• The latest Baker Hughes rig count data is due for release at 13:00ET.
• US nonfarm payrolls are due for release at 08:30 ET and expected to rise 183k with the unemployment rate remaining at 3.9% as the markets look for signs of future US Fed policy.
• In a widely expected move, state-run Tass reports that President Vladimir Putin will run for office once again in the 17 March 2024 presidential election.
• Led by a drop in Iraqi production, OPEC+ output fell by 110,000 bpd in November m/m to 42.6mn bpd according to a Platts survey.
• A price fall below $60/bbl for Russian Urals this week will support higher Indian demand due to access to western insurance and shipping services.
• Indian fuel consumption fell in November after reaching a four-month peak in October according to PPAC data.
• Brent crude is forecast to average 77$/bbl in 2024 and WTI expected at 72.88$/bbl over 2024, amid softer balances according to Macquarie Group Ltd.
• Oil demand growth in China is expected to slow to 500kbpd in 2024 according to the median of 12 industry consultants and analyst estimates surveyed by Bloomberg.
• A shadow-fleet oil tanker, the Liberty, has run aground in Indonesian waters near to Singapore, carrying around 1m bbl of Venezuelan oil, according to Bloomberg.