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OIL: Middle East Risk & US Crude Stock Decline Offsets OPEC Demand Revision

OIL

Crude steadies after a rally in futures and time spreads yesterday as markets weigh risks of a further escalation of Middle East tensions and falling US crude stocks against a lower demand revision from the latest OPEC monthly report.

  • OPEC lowered its demand growth to 2.1m b/d for 2024, down 135k b/d compared to last month’s assessment, according to their August Monthly Oil Market Report due to H1 data and softer China expectations. OPEC’s demand growth forecast is still well above the IEA’s, whose report is out today.
  • A strike from Iran or Hezbollah on Israel is expected soon. Israel’s IDF has been put on “peak alert”, according to the WSJ, and the US is increasing its presence in the region. US Secretary of State Blinken is scheduled to travel to the region later today, according to Axios. Gaza ceasefire talks are still planned for Aug 15. 
  • EIA US crude inventories have recorded six consecutive drawdowns while another draw is expected this week according to a preliminary Reuters survey ahead of API data today and EIA data tomorrow.
  • Gasoline cracks fell yesterday amid signs of falling US demand after passing the summer peak while US diesel cracks fell towards the lowest since early 2022.
  • GasBuddy models U.S. gasoline demand down 3.8% in the latest weekly data to Aug. 10 at 8.94m b/d.
    • Brent OCT 24 down 0.7% at 81.76$/bbl
    • WTI SEP 24 down 0.6% at 79.61$/bbl
    • Brent OCT 24-NOV 24 down 0.01$/bbl at 0.91$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.15$/bbl at 4.07$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.2$/bbl at 22.55$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.1$/bbl at 21.21$/bbl
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