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Free AccessOIL: OIES Reduce 2024 Brent Forecast on Contained Iran-Israel Tensions
OIES have reduced the Brent forecast for 2024 by $0.9/bbl to $84.5/bbl and 2025 by $2/bbl to $79/bbl in 2025, according to the latest Oil Monthly report.
- The Q2 price was revised down by $2.4/bbl to $87.6/bbl, primarily driven by the containment of Iran-Israel tensions.
- Brent at $86.2/bbl is Q3 is supported by tightening balances before falling to the low-$80s in Q4, assuming OPEC+ gradually unwinds voluntary cuts in Q3.
- A potential extension of the OPEC+ voluntary cuts beyond June could sustain Brent in the $85-90/bbl range in H2.
- The oil market deficit in 2024 has been lowered by 220kb/d to 340kb/d reflecting slow progress on full OPEC+ compliance and upward forecast revisions in NGLs.
- A 380kb/d surplus is expected in 2025 on higher non-OPEC and other liquids supply exceeding small global demand gains.
- The global demand growth forecast is unchanged at 1.6mb/d in 2024 and 1.3mb/d in 2025. Gasoline and jet fuel demand remains supportive, but diesel/gasoil demand is persisting.
- Global supply growth forecast is raised by 100kb/d to 1.1mb/d in 2024 and by 50kb/d to 2mb/d in 2025 led by the US, Canada and Brazil.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.