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OIL: Oil Forecast at $90/bbl in H2 Amid Risks from OPEC Decision: ANZ

OIL

Oil is forecast at $90/bbl in H2 2024 but with risks in either direction based on the outcome of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, according to ANZ.

  • Oil is forecast at $90/bbl in H2 2024 on the expectation that the market will move into a deficit as the future call on OPEC production rises well above current output.
  • If OPEC choose to remove output cuts at the upcoming June 1 meeting ANZ said their fair value models suggests prices could fall as low as $75/bbl.
  • However, an OPEC cut extension could result in eye-watering deficits driving oil prices to $100/bbl.
  • The estimates don’t take into consideration any geopolitical risk premium.

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