OIL: Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Falls Back

Crude markets have reversed some of yesterday’s rally, as the market weight supply risks from Libya and a potential start to US monetary policy easing against the wider global economic outlook.

• Brent OCT 24 down 1.7% at 80.08$/bbl
• WTI OCT 24 down 1.7% at 76.1$/bbl 
• Libya’s eastern government announced on Monday it would shut down the country’s crude output and exports, prompting a surge in crude prices.
• Waha Oil Co., which supplies Es Sider said on Monday it will start cutting shipments gradually.
• Two oilfields in southeast Libya shut down, another oilfield reduced production to lowest capacity, according to Reuters.
• A total of 676mbbls of open October Brent options positions are currently due to expire against the futures close price today. Open interest is 474k call contracts and 202k for puts.
• Brent crude call option traded volumes surged on Aug 26 ahead of the options expiry today driven by October and November call spreads.
• North Sea Forties output will edge down to 226.4kb/d in December from 228.1kb/d in November, according to pipeline operator Ineos.
• Russia’s crude oil exports to Hungary and Slovakia via Ukraine remained near normal levels in July, according to Bloomberg.
• Kazakhstan expects oil production to rise 8% from 90.3m tons in 2024 to 97.2m tons in 2025, according to Deputy Premier and Economy Minister Nurlan Baibazarov cited by Bloomberg.
• Goldman Sachs cut its average 2025 Brent crude forecast by $5/bbl to $77/bbl with unexpected increases in oil inventories and slow China demand.