OIL: Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Rises

Crude rallied through first technical resistance before easing back but remain higher on the day. The market is weighing some near-term supply disruptions and risks from Libya, US, Kazakhstan and a recent drop in Russian exports against ongoing tepid fuel demand.

• Brent NOV 24 up 1.2% at 74.81$/bbl
• WTI NOV 24 up 1.3% at 71.25$/bbl
• Wires carrying comments from IDF spox Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari saying "We must not give Hezbollah a break, attacks will be accelerated today.
• Libya’s crude export dropped to around 400,000 bpd in September so far- well below August’s pace of 1.02mn bpd according to port and shipping data seen by Reuters.
• Russia’s seaborne crude shipments slipped to the lowest since July last week on a four-week average basis according to Bloomberg vessel tracking.
• Russia's ESPO Blend oil prices have risen to a premium over Brent for the first time since November 2023 on higher Chinese refiner demand ahead of the winter season, according to Reuters sources.
• US shale producers are no longer in a position to aggressively ramp up output to reduce energy prices, according to Wil VanLoh, CEO at Quantum Energy Partners in an interview with Bloomberg.
• Saudi has been doing much of the heavy lifting for OPEC+ this year and last to shore up global supplies. As a result, its exports have been towards the lower end of its 2016-23 range this year according to Vortexa vessel tracking.
• Total America’s crude imports (north, central and south) have been trending more sour in recent months according to Vortexa.
• Crude oil time spreads look undervalued as balances tighten so prices still have some room to gain, according to Goldman Sachs cited by Bloomberg.