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OIL: OPEC+ Could Scrap Supply Return Plan to Protect Prices: DNB

OIL

OPEC+ is expected to scrap the planned supply increase to protect prices with a Brent price forecast of $82/bbl for 2024 and $77/bbl in 2025, according to DNB cited by Bloomberg.

  • Brent crude could fall to $60-$70/bbl in 2025 if OPEC+ proceeds with the current plan to restore halted production from October.
  • “We expect the oil market to flip to moderate oversupply even if OPEC extends its existing production cuts” as next year looks to be challenging for OPEC.
  • “Softening demand and still-strong non-OPEC supply growth leave no room for additional OPEC supply next year.”
  • Strong rival supply growth of about 1.5mb/d this year and next “is a headache for OPEC.”
  • “Global oil demand growth has slowed markedly,” to 900kb/d so far in 2024 compared to 2.1mb/d in 2023.
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