OIL: OPEC Expected To Delay Output Increase Again, US EIA Data Later

Oil is little changed during APAC trading today as a 60-day truce between Israel and Hezbollah began at 0200 GMT. Brent is up 0.1% to $72.86/bbl, close to the intraday high, and WTI is moderately higher at $68.80/bbl after a low of $68.58. The USD index is down 0.1% but still 2.2% higher in November, which has weighed on dollar-denominated crude.

• The market will be focussing now on not just today’s EIA data, but also the weekend’s OPEC meeting. There have been comments that the non-OPEC supply outlook is not conducive for OPEC+ to begin reducing its output cuts suggesting that they are likely to be delayed further.
• The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah will be monitored closely with both sides attacking in the hours before the truce was due to begin.
• A petroleum industry group has estimated that Trump’s 25% tariff on imports from Canada could impact almost 4mn barrels of Canadian oil and would increase US gasoline prices, according to Bloomberg.
• Bloomberg reported a significant 5.9mn US crude inventory drawdown last week, according to people familiar with the API data. Stocks at Cushing fell 700k, while products rose with gasoline up 1.8mn and distillate 2.5mn. The official EIA data is out later today.
• Later revised US Q3 GDP, jobless claims, November MNI Chicago PMI, preliminary October durable orders, October trade, personal income/spending & PCE price indices print. The ECB’s Lane speaks.