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OIL: Physical Crude Holds Up Against Price Plunge: Sparta

OIL

The physical crude market has not capitulated in the same was as flat price, but the crude structure is being supported for now only by supply issues, Sparts Commodities said cited by Bloomberg.

  • The effect of poor margins “still needs to filter through,” Sparta added.
  • WTI Midland will arrive in Asia for end-November delivery at far more competitive prices than Murban. Furthermore, the Dubai structure has not weakened in line with WTI and Brent.
  • Murban may start facing pressure with an increase in US outflows.
  • Chinese refiners may boost imports with flats prices substantially lower month-on-month; strong imports may not be maintained through H1 2025, amid poor domestic demand and weak export margins.
  • China has boosted buying heavier US grades recently following Shandong’s Yulong refinery start up.
  • In Europe, simple refining margins have improved by North Sea grades will likely see further weakness amid flows from the USGC.
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