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OIL PRODUCTS: Low Margins Risks Gasoline Unit Run Cuts in Europe and Asia: FGE

OIL PRODUCTS
BulletEnergy BulletsCommodities

Europe and Asia are at risk of refinery run cuts in gasoline making units due to low margins, according to FGE cited by Bloomberg.

  • An extension and/or deepening of the cuts in Europe is possible with Brent FCC margins still in run cut territory while Asian RFCC margins for Dubai have fallen to a three-month low.
  • Run cuts mainly on gasoline-focussed FCCs are expected to lead to elevated stock draws and improved gasoline cracks in Q4 2024. Support also comes from European gasoline demand forecast to grow in Q3 and Q4 while hurricane disruption remains a risk to USGC production.
  • OECD middle distillates stock levels could be tight due to stock draws in September and October.
  • A structural shortage of winter-spec diesel in northern Europe in November will support middle distillates cracks.
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Europe and Asia are at risk of refinery run cuts in gasoline making units due to low margins, according to FGE cited by Bloomberg.

  • An extension and/or deepening of the cuts in Europe is possible with Brent FCC margins still in run cut territory while Asian RFCC margins for Dubai have fallen to a three-month low.
  • Run cuts mainly on gasoline-focussed FCCs are expected to lead to elevated stock draws and improved gasoline cracks in Q4 2024. Support also comes from European gasoline demand forecast to grow in Q3 and Q4 while hurricane disruption remains a risk to USGC production.
  • OECD middle distillates stock levels could be tight due to stock draws in September and October.
  • A structural shortage of winter-spec diesel in northern Europe in November will support middle distillates cracks.