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Oil Products Summary at European Close: Diesel Cracks Rise on Stock Draw


US diesel cracks are seeing some support with another stock draw while gasoline is seeing downside pressure due to a fresh decline in implied demand.

    • US gasoline crack down -0.5$/bbl at 14.48$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.7$/bbl at 43.03$/bbl
  • EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - w/w change week ending Nov 17: Gasoline stocks +750 vs Exp -745, Implied mogas demand -469, Distillate stocks -1,018 vs Exp -862, Implied dist demand +1, Tot product stocks -4,237, Ref runs +105, Ref Run rate +0.90 vs Exp +0.70
  • API weekly oil stock data from late yesterday according to Bloomberg: Gasoline -1.79mbbl, Distillate -3.51mbbl.
  • Distillates stocks fell again to the lowest since May 2022 despite an increase in production driven by a drop in imports and slightly higher exports. Four week implied demand was unchanged on the week and therefore still near the five year range lows.
  • Gasoline stocks unexpectedly built with a drop in implied demand to halt the recovery seen over the previous few weeks. Gasoline production dipped on the week despite the higher refinery runs but imports rose and exports fell to add to the overall build.
  • The national average price of gasoline fell to its lowest since 15 January at $3.27/gal, while the delay of the OPEC+ meeting could pressure prices further down according to GasBuddy.
  • Tuesday US gasoline demand jumped 9.4% from last Tuesday and was 9.1% above the average of the last four Tuesdays. The same numbers in 2022 were +11.0% and +13.2%, respectively, according to GasBuddy.
  • Russian oil-product exports are on course to reach a four month high in November driven by diesel according to Bloomberg based on Vortexa data.

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