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Oil Rises On US Growth Data, July Rally May Be Over Done

OIL

Oil prices rose over 1% following the good US growth data. Q2 US GDP rose a higher-than-expected 2.4% saar and the price index was down to 2.6%, thus improving expectations of a soft landing. WTI broke above $80 but couldn’t sustain moves above this level. It is currently around $79.70. Brent couldn’t hold breaks above $84 for long and closed at $83.86. The USD index rose 0.9%.

  • As we approach month end, WTI is 12.6% higher in July driven by OPEC+ cuts, potential China stimulus and the Fed approaching the end of its tightening cycle. But US and China demand concerns remain. IEA has expected the market to tighten in H2 2023 for some time and signs are now appearing. Brent is up 11.2% this month.
  • WTI resistance is at $81.44, April 12 high, and Brent’s is $85.47. But Bloomberg is reporting that oil’s relative strength index is flashing overbought for the third straight day, which could result in some volatility ahead.

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