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(M2) Correction Extends

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Oil Set For More Than 50% Gain In 2021

COMMODITIES
  • Crude oil futures have slipped to the lows of the weekly range since the Dec 27 rally, seemingly on potential risk trimming in light of any material headlines.
  • WTI is -1.9% at $75.6 but still up 2.3% on the week, 14% on the month and 56% on the year (Brent up 51%), the largest annual gain since 2009.
  • It is back below the 50-day EMA of $76.26. There could be support at $72.57 (Dec 27 low) after which it’s $68.56 (Dec 21 low). Initial resistance is today’s earlier high of $77.08 and then $77.44 where this week’s rally has stalled (76.4% retracement of the Oct-Dec downleg).
  • Brent is -1.7% at $78.2, with support at $73.62 (Dec 22 low) and initial resistance at $80.17 (Dec 29 high).
  • OPEC+ meets on Tuesday and is likely to stick to existing plans and confirm a 400kbpd output increase for Feb according to four sources per Reuters yesterday.
  • Gold meanwhile is finishing the year on a solid note, +0.7% at $1826, breaking earlier highs of $1820.3 and opening $1830, the 61.8% retracement of the Nov 16 - Dec 15 downleg.

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