Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Erases Some Losses

Crude front month is trading in a narrow range but slightly lower on the day as markets try to balance risks of weaker demand growth and the uncertain OPEC+ production plans ahead of the group meeting this weekend. Iran’s plans to further raise production has offered downside.

• Brent JAN 24 down -0.3% at 82.1$/bbl
• WTI JAN 24 down -0.3% at 77.56$/bbl
• The API oil inventory data is due for release today at 16:30 ET ahead of the EIA weekly data tomorrow.
• Saudi Arabia is likely to extend its 1mbpd oil output cut through 1Q 2024, and Russia is expected to do the same to its current 300kbpd cut of crude and oil products exports, while a deepening of cuts is not included in the base case, Citigroup said in a note, cited by Bloomberg.
• Even if the OPEC+ nations extend output cuts into next year the global oil market will see a slight surplus of supply in 2024 according to Toril Bosoni at the IEA.
• OPEC is likely to maintain the existing group and unilateral supply reductions at the meeting this weekend to preserve a floor for crude prices according to RBC Capital Markets LLC.
• Libyan crude production reached 1.24mbpd on 19 November, the highest level since at least August 2022, NOC data showed, raising the question whether Libya’s higher output could be brought up at the next OPEC+ meeting on Sunday.
• Iran’s oil production is estimated to reach 3.6mbpd in March next year, Iran’s Oil Minister, Javad Oji, said via Asharq News. Output from March 2024 onwards will reach 4mbpd, Javad Oji said, cited by Shana.
• Russian seaborne crude exports averaged 2.7mbpd in the week to 19 November, down by 580kbpd from the week prior according to Bloomberg.