Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Set for on Week Fall

Crude futures have rebounded today after reaching their lowest level since late June yesterday. Despite gains on the day, Brent remains around 3.8% down since the start of the week amid continued bearish sentiment driven by strong non-OPEC supply and fears around OPEC+ voluntary cut commitments.

• Brent FEB 24 up 2.4% at 75.84$/bbl
• WTI JAN 24 up 2.6% at 71.16$/bbl
• The latest Baker Hughes rig count data is due for release at 13:00ET.
• The US Energy Department is seeking to buy 3mn bbls of crude for the US SPR with March delivery according to an official solicitation.
• OPEC+ output fell by 110,000 bpd in November m/m to 42.6mn bpd according to a Platts survey.
• OPEC secretary general urgent letter dated dec. 6 to OPEC members: urges OPEC countries to proactively reject any cop28 deal text or formula that targets fossil fuels rather than emissions – Reuters.
• A price fall below $60/bbl for Russian Urals this week will support higher Indian demand due to access to western insurance and shipping services.
• Russia’s Novorossiisk December crude loadings were revised down to 1.72mn tonnes from 2.14m mt from November according to Reuters sources.
• Iranian crude output has risen by more than 500,00 bpd this year according to the latest Platts survey at 3.1mn bpd in November.
• Guyana has the support of the international community in its border dispute with Venezuela according to ExxonMobils CEO Darren Woods said in a CNBC interview.
• JP Morgan maintain a Brent crude forecast of 80$/bbl as long-term demand is set to remain strong and the “supercycle thesis remains intact.”
• Brent crude is forecast to average 77$/bbl in 2024 and WTI expected at 72.88$/bbl over 2024, amid softer balances according to Macquarie Group Ltd.