Oil Summary: Crude Regains Ground

Crude regained ground on increasing supply risks to Russian crude shipments from rising tensions in the Black Sea. Russian Black Sea ports are at present likely to be considered as safe according to marine insurer Gard but the situation remains volatile.

• Brent OCT 23 up 0.6% at 86.68$/bbl
• WTI SEP 23 up 0.7% at 83.48$/bbl
• API weekly oil stock data from late yesterday: Crude +4.07mbbl, Cushing -0.112mbbl, Gasoline -0.413mbbl, Distillate -2.10mbbl.
• Crude inventories in the European ARA region increased 1.84mbbls in the week ending 4 August according to the latest Genscape data.
• EIA revised up its 2H23 Brent forecast to average $86/bbl, up by $7/bbl from last month. Global liquids fuel growth for this year has been revised up to 1.4mbpd according to the STEO report.
• The EIA weekly petroleum inventory data is due for release this afternoon at 15:30BST. EIA data is expected to show a build in crude stocks with gasoline and distillates inventories relatively unchanged and a small increase in refinery utilisation according to a Bloomberg survey.
• OPEC+ crude oil production fell to the lowest level since August 2021 driven by Saudi Arabia’s voluntary output cuts, as well as disruptions in Kazakhstan and Nigeria according to a Platts survey.
• Crude export cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia are “pronounced but dampened by limited” co-operation from other OPEC+ members, according to Vortexa analyst Pamela Munger.
• Iran will produce an additional 250k b/d of oil by the end of summer, according to Tasnim news agency, citing the head of the National Iranian Oil Company.
• Diesel markets late yesterday regained losses from earlier in the week with US diesel futures settling at the highest level since January amid a wider oil market recovery yesterday.
• Another counter seasonal draw in API crude stocks last night has added to the upside pressure on prices ahead of the updated EIA data later today.
• US and European diesel crack spreads are edging higher again today back towards the highest since early Feb seen last week.
• Gasoil AUG 23 up 3.4% at 919$/mt
• Gasoil AUG 23-SEP 23 up 1.75$/mt at 12.25$/mt
• Gasoil DEC 23-DEC 24 up 11.75$/mt at 85.25$/mt
• US ULSD crack up 0.5$/bbl at 47.33$/bbl
• EU Gasoil-Brent up 0.5$/bbl at 33.19$/bbl
• Exports of Russian refined fuels fell to 2.6m b/d in the week to Aug. 4, according to Vortexa data, a 14% fall week-on-week.