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Oil Weakness Continues To Weigh On COP

COLOMBIA
  • The firmer economic activity reading in August, +8.6% versus +6.4% in July, has the potential to increase the likelihood of further aggressive monetary policy tightening from BanRep at the October 28 meeting.
  • With the additional pressure of annual CPI rising to 11.44% in September and the core reading eclipsing 8%, the central bank decision will be in focus following six of the seven-member board voting for a 100bp hike to 10.00% in September and may prolong the ability to signal the end of the tightening cycle as has been seen in Brazil and Chile.
  • The Colombian Peso has continued its downtrend over recent trading sessions with USDCOP rising to all-time-highs of 4793, up over 2% in today’s session, largely a result of the renewed weakness in oil prices.
  • As noted this morning, WTI futures remain vulnerable and this week’s weakness has reinforced a short-term bearish theme. $82.89, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally has been breached during Tuesday trade and the next notable support comes in at $79.14 - Low Sep 30.

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