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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NETHERLANDS
The Netherlands goes to the polls on 22 November to elect all 150 members of the House of Representatives. For the first time since the 2003 election outgoing PM Mark Rutte will not be leading the centre-right People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), and an alliance between two centre-left parties and the emergence of a new centrist force will make post-election coalition formation crucial for determining the direction of the Dutch gov't on issues ranging from migration to EU fiscal rules.
- Recent opinion polling shows a three-way tussle between the VVD, now led by Minister of Justice Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, the Labour-GreenLeft (PvdA-GL)alliance under former European Commission VP Frans Timmermans, and the upstart New Social Contract (NSC) of former CDA representative Pieter Omtzigt.
- The populist agrarian Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), after scoring top spot in the provincial elections earlier in the year, have seen a sustained decline in support, while the right-wing nationalist Party for Freedom (PVV) of Geert Wilders has risen to fourth place.
- The NSC looks set to be the main kingmaker. It could side with the VVD in a centre-right leaning gov't that will likely maintain a similar stance on EU fiscal rules as part of the 'frugals' as Rutte's gov't. Alternatively, it could bring the PvdA-GL alliance into a more centrist/centre-left leaning administration, havingtold a group of students on the campaign trail that he feels 'closest' to Timmermans on financial security issues.
Chart 1. Netherlands General Election Opinion Polling, Seat Projection (3-Poll Moving Average)
Source: I&O, Peil, Ipsos, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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