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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CZECHIA
Petr Pavel is on track to clinch victory in the Czech presidential run-off this week, barring an unexpected upset, having consolidated his lead over Andrej Babis in the final days of the campaign.
- As a reminder, Pavel is a former military commander and senior NATO official, declaring pro-EU and pro-NATO views. Babis is a business tycoon and former Prime Minister, often described as a populist politician and compared with Hungary's Viktor Orban.
- Pavel managed to secure the backing of a broad coalition of public figures, including numbers three (Danuse Nerudova) and four (Pavel Fischer) in the first round of the election, as well as the the ruling centre-right coalition led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala. Babis is supported by outgoing President Milos Zeman.
- Yesterday evening, Pavel received an endorsement from former CNB Governor Jiri Rusnok, who gave a brief interview to Seznam Zpravy. While Rusnok repeatedly traded barbs with Andrej Babis when the latter served as Prime Minister, he has generally refrained from commenting on politics since leaving the central bank last year.
- There won't be any more opinion polls but the latest ones suggested that Pavel held a comfortable lead of around 15-16pp over his rival. His victory is almost fully priced by bookmakers (91% implied chance at typing) after this week saw continued addition of bets on his success.
- The polling stations across Czechia will open tomorrow at 14:00CET/13:00GMT and close at the same time on Saturday.
Fig. 1: Implied Odds Of Victory In Czech Presidential Election According To Mandaty.cz Model Based On Betting Market Pricing
Source: Mandaty.cz
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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