MNI BRIEF: China Working On Trade-in Scheme Expansion - MOFCOM

MNI BRIEF: BOJ Wants More Wage Data, US Econ Outlook – Ueda

MNI: GERMANY GFK JANUARY CONSUMER CLIMATE -21.3

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY14.5 Bln via OMO Thursday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1911 Thurs; -2.12% Y/Y

CORRECTS-MNI INTERVIEW: CBRT To Cut 2-3 Times By Feb-Cangoz

MNI: FRANCE DEC MANUF SENTIMENT AT 97

US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -0.93M TO 421.0M DEC 13 WK

MNI: US NOV HOUSING STARTS 1.289M; PERMITS 1.505M

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

BOJ: On Hold As Expected, Few Statement Surprises, Ueda Press Conference Later

BOJ
Central Bank NewsAPACJapanBank of JapanBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

The BoJ left rates on hold as expected at 0.25%. This was in line with market pricing and the majority of economists also expected no change. There were strong hints in the media that the BoJ would stand pat, while our own onshore policy team in Japan noted political pressure was also likely curbing appetite to raise rates ahead of year end. 

  • The statement appears to contain few surprises. Uncertainties around Japan's economic and inflation outlook are high, which was cited before as a factor delaying rate hikes into 2025.
  • Underlying inflation is expected to tick up gradually, in line with the economy continuing to grow above potential. As was previously expected as well, inflation is expected to be in line with the 2% goal in the second half of the outlook period.
  • FX moves can be expected to impart a greater influence on inflation going forward. This is in line with the recent tight link between USD/JPY and imported price pressures, which we have highlighted in earlier bullets.
  • The cycle between wages and prices, and wages and spending was also intensifying.
  • There was a dissent from board member Tamura, who was in favor of a 25bps hike. Tamura is known to have a hawkish lean.
  • The BoJ also released a review into its review on monetary policy (see this link).
  • Focus now shifts to the Ueda press conference, due at 3:30pm local time. As we noted earlier the main focus will be on Q1 tightening risks. 
247 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

The BoJ left rates on hold as expected at 0.25%. This was in line with market pricing and the majority of economists also expected no change. There were strong hints in the media that the BoJ would stand pat, while our own onshore policy team in Japan noted political pressure was also likely curbing appetite to raise rates ahead of year end. 

  • The statement appears to contain few surprises. Uncertainties around Japan's economic and inflation outlook are high, which was cited before as a factor delaying rate hikes into 2025.
  • Underlying inflation is expected to tick up gradually, in line with the economy continuing to grow above potential. As was previously expected as well, inflation is expected to be in line with the 2% goal in the second half of the outlook period.
  • FX moves can be expected to impart a greater influence on inflation going forward. This is in line with the recent tight link between USD/JPY and imported price pressures, which we have highlighted in earlier bullets.
  • The cycle between wages and prices, and wages and spending was also intensifying.
  • There was a dissent from board member Tamura, who was in favor of a 25bps hike. Tamura is known to have a hawkish lean.
  • The BoJ also released a review into its review on monetary policy (see this link).
  • Focus now shifts to the Ueda press conference, due at 3:30pm local time. As we noted earlier the main focus will be on Q1 tightening risks.