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US DATA PREVIEW: On tap for Friday: Nonfarm payrolls for January (167k);
unemployment rate (3.9%); average hourly earnings (0.2%); Michigan sentiment
index (f) for February (91.0); ISM Manufacturing Index for January (54.1);
NA-made light vehicle sales SAAR through the session.
- Deutsche Bank economists said the employment report "should moderate from last
month's exceptional gains, the pace of job creation should be more than enough
to lower the unemployment rate a tenth to 3.8%."
- On AHE (DB est +0.2%) "should have effect of lowering y-o-y growth rate of
series a tenth from its post-recession high of 3.2%. However, if hours worked
remain at 34.5 as we anticipate, the payroll proxy for nominal income growth
would rise to 5.5% (year-over-year), matching its post-recession high."
- Morgan Stanley economists est "167,000 total job gains...with unemployment
rate holding at 3.9%. We expect earnings to rise 0.1% on month, lowering y-o-y
rate to 3.0% from 3.2% in Dec."
- MS sees the ISM falling 2.4 points to 51.7, on top of a 5.2-point drop in Dec
which brought index to a two-year low.