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On Yesterday's Bout of Risk-Off, Some Sellside Views on the Market Moves:

CROSS ASSET
  • Citi: Two culprits for the risk-off move: Delta variant concerns, with question marks over the efficacy of vaccines against the more transmissible strain and weaker PMIs pointing to peak GDP growth. "This brings to light concerns the second derivative of global growth may be turning negative."
  • Credit Suisse: Short USD positions established in Q2 are still playing a key role in driving price action. A key difference has however emerged in the past week, as the recent move lower in US yields appears to be closely mirrored by a comparable decline in non-US yields. CS think this development characterizes recent USD strength more in terms of a "safe haven" move driven by rising investor concerns for the medium- and long-term growth outlook, rather than as a pro-USD shift driven by the relative changes in monetary policy expectations that dominated FX price action in Q2.
  • SocGen: Yesterday's downtick in oil prices may be because markets see individual producers seeking to cash in on higher prices after the collapse of the OPEC+ deal
  • ING: Yesterday's correction was partly driven by re-pricing of the reflation story - namely, the sharp drop in oil prices, a weaker ISM reading and China's crackdown on tech companies listed abroad.
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