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One Year Round Trip for 10Y Yield: Back to 3.87%

US TSYS
  • Treasury curves remain steeper (3M10Y +7.443 at -147.672, 2Y10Y +6.160 at -37.288) with short end rates outperforming after the early cash close -- Globex closes at it's normal time of 1600ET.
  • At the moment, March'24 10Y (TYH4) are trading 112-24.5 (-4), still well within technical levels: Initial technical support well below at 111-31+/111-20 (Low Dec 14 / 20-day EMA); resistance above at 113-12.5, a Fibonacci projection point (1.764 proj of the Oct 19 - Nov 3 - Nov 13 price swing).
  • One year round trip: 10Y yield at 3.8791% (+.0348) is practically where it ended last December 2022 at 3.8748%.
  • Short end rates had quietly lead way off session lows since this morning's lower than expected December reading of Chicago PMI: 46.9 vs. 50.0 est, 55.8 prior.
  • Markets are closed Monday for New Years holiday, Globex resumes at 1600ET. Aside from Tuesday data, focus on Dec FOMC minutes Wednesday afternoon, ADP early Thursday and Dec employment report next week Friday.

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