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Onshore Spot Above 1280 Amid Offshore Outflows

KRW

1 month USD/KRW sits below session highs. We got above 1280 in early trade, amid equity market weakness, with weaker export growth in the first 20-days of July also likely weighing, albeit at the margins. The pair last tracked around the 1279 level, still 0.20% weaker in won terms versus Thursday's NY closing level. On the topside the 20-day EMA around 1283 isn't too far away. Onshore spot is above 1281 currently, around 0.90% weaker for the session so far (highs were just short of 1283).

  • The Kospi is in the red but away from worst levels (last 2595/96, -0.15%, earlier lows were at 2570.60). Offshore investors have sold -$317.2mn so far today, meaning we have now seen net outflows for this week (presuming today's trend holds).
  • A better tone to HK and China equities is limiting the fallout for South Korean shares, which were under earlier pressure on tech related headwinds from the US and Taiwan (TSMC disappointing outlook). This is also likely capping USD/KRW gains to a degree.

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