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OPEC Places 2028 Oil Demand at 110.2mn bpd

OIL

In the medium term, OPEC sees oil demand hitting 110.2mn bpd in 2028, compared with 105mn bpd projected by the IEA.

  • Looking further out, OPEC forecasts global demand at 112mn bpd in 2030, 114.4mn bpd in 2035 and 115.4mn bpd in 2040.
  • It forecasts that OECD demand grows marginally up to a peak of 46.6mn bpd in 2026 before starting a steady descent from 2028 onwards. By 2045, OECD demand is 9.3mn bpd lower than in 2022.
  • OPEC expects this will be mainly driven by energy efficiency improvements and the substitution of oil with electricity and gas.
  • Non-OECD oil demand is expected to grow by 25.7mn bpd between 2022 and 2045, driven by high population growth, an expanding middle class and robust economic growth.
  • OPEC forecasts global liquids supply rising to 106.3mn bpd in 2025 and 116mn bpd in 2045 - compared with 100mn bpd in 2022.
  • Non-OPEC liquids supply is forecast to rise by 7mn bpd to 72.7mn bpd in 2028, but peak shortly after 2030 at around 73.5mn bpd.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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